Why Are Housing Starts Down So Much In Windsor - Essex in 2019?

A lot of economists see statistics such as new housing starts (basically building permits to construct new residential housing) as a leading indicator for the economy. CMHC reported in their March 2019 Housing Start Data, that the Windsor-Essex region’s housing starts had fallen 23% year over year. Is that cause for concern?  Today, we are going to discuss some of the factors we think that are leading to this slowdown and what else you need to know.

Reason 1 - Shortage of Building Lots

I know this seems very obvious but this really is an issue. I personally know people who would love to build but can’t find a building lot for sale. A lot of subdivisions are nearing completion and the pipeline to replace them is pretty slim. Basically, not as much supply of building lots compared to last year.

Reason 2 - Bringing on Additional Supply of Building Lots is Difficult

We have so much land in Windsor they say, why don’t you just develop it? While Windsor isn’t the most dense city, getting a piece of land to a serviced, shovel ready project isn’t an easy task.  If you have to go through the municipal rezoning process that can take 6 months easily and can cost tens of thousands of dollars in some cases. There are also significant area of red tape to battle through including: biology studies, archeological studies, utility servicing studies, traffic studies, noise studies, etc. This can take years and lots of capital, with no guarantee of success, or can make a project uneconomical. This all leads to decreased supply long term and is a major issue for municipalities all over the province with Windsor being no exception.

Reason 3 - New Home Prices are Getting Unaffordable

Some of these construction costs are driving the pricing of new homes to price points that are no longer affordable for the average person. It's commonplace to see $700-800k price tags on the average new build. The market has been doing extremely well locally but sticker shock  has to have some effect on demand eventually.

Reason 4 - Labour Shortage Affecting Trades Pricing

Tying into point 3, part of the reason for the large price tags on some of these new builds are the escalating pricing from the trades.  Electricians, plumbers, bricklayers, etc are in high demand and able to command premium pricing in today’s market. This trickles down to the end buyer.  Hard to see this changing anytime soon.

Reason 5 - Its Taking Longer to Build Homes

Essentially the labour shortage also means slower build times.  Back 5 years ago it wasn’t uncommon to build a house in 90 days. Now it's not uncommon to see 180+ days. This statistically is taking units out of the data.

Bonus Point - What Does All This Mean for the Resale Market?

This decrease in new home sales activity is adding demand to the resale market. Taking some of the buyers out of the new home market for the above reasons is directing them to the resale market. And the resale market already has a supply-demand imbalance. This increased demand could explain some of the crazy resale statistics to start 2019.

Thats how we are seeing the new home starts data. What are you seeing out there?

Real Estate Insider: September 2018 News Report

Welcome back, Real Estate Insiders! This month we have a solid list of topics ranging from finding the perfect tenant to the latest craze of remodelling. We hope you have a cup of coffee and are ready for some of the most informative reads we've ever found. Enjoy!

Title insurance is a closing cost that everyone seems to question, but do you really need it? Well the short answer... is YES! Read how title insurance can save you from financial and personal stress.

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While not everyone might know what “Sequence Risk” is, it affects everyone the same. This is why you need to eliminate as much sequence risk as possible! Real Estate is a great way to significantly reduce this risk and this article explains why.

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Are you buying a new home or condo? Make sure to be caught up on the HST rebate rules so you don’t miss out on huge savings!

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True or False: Windsor is the most affordable city to buy a house in all of Canada. Find out the answer here!

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Remodelling is a rising trend among homeowners that doesn’t seem to be slowing down! But there are negative effects not shown on HGTV. Read them here.

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Cannabis is being legalized in less a month! Here are 5 things you should know now to stay informed.

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In trial separations it is sometimes unclear how the real estate is going to be divided among the family. This article can help with that part!

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Making sure you have good Tenants can make or break a rental property, so don’t leave anything to chance! Read the ultimate screening process here so picking good Tenants can be easy.

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The first year of anything you do usually has the biggest learning curve, so this article of 5 Lessons that Chris Mamula learned in his first year as a Landlord should help ease that curve! 

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Real Estate Investing isn’t only for the rich! Read here for an example of how to invest in a rental property with little to no down payment.

Development Across Windsor-Essex - Summarizing The Projects in the Works

Hope you are all enjoying your summer! It has been flying by way too fast. As we look forward to September when everyone gets back from vacation, its time to get back to business! You may have noticed that quite a few new developments have been announced in the Windsor area during the last few months. Today, we are going to summarize them in one place for your easy reading!

The Hive on Pelissier - 531 Pelissier

An exciting downtown project from a prominent investor group that includes a local home builder, an architect and realtors. The project is located downtown on Pelissier, just north of Wyandotte. The existing building, known to most people as the former Don Cherry’s, has three storeys being added to create 24 residential loft units. The main floor will feature three commercial units and the Lalovich Real Estate Team will be taking on the marketing! Look for this one in 2020. To see more on this exciting development, check out their website.

120 Unit Residential Development Downtown - Victoria and Park Street

There are plans for a 120 unit residential development at the northwest corner of Victoria and Park Street. At 16 storeys high, this building will have underground parking and ground floor commercial. The developer is SIND Investments and is slated to be the largest residential development in the core in decades. The name of the project is Glenkash Luxury Suites. There isn’t a great amount of detail out on this project as of yet, so stayed tuned!

24 Unit Residential Building - Ouellette and Erie Street

Just north of Ouellette and Erie Street, keep an eye out for a new 24 unit building. There will be a mix of one bedroom (800’) and two bedroom (1200’) units. The builder, Valente Development Corporation, had really applauded the city for their CIP incentives, which offers tax incentives for development in the core. Unfortunately, relations have soured after the decision to sell the former library on Ouellette to the Downtown Mission. It should be interesting to see how things play out.

150 Unit Seniors Apartment Project - Wyandotte and Crawford

The plans for the northeast corner of Wyandotte and Crawford include a 150 unit apartment building aimed at seniors. There will be one bed, one bed plus den and two bed units, ranging between $1,100-$1,600 per month. The units will be similar to condos with their own furnace/ac, washer/dryer and balcony. Developer Piroli Group Developments aims to do something to the project they did in Leamington a few years back. Construction is slated to begin in 2019.

Six Storey Condo Building - Walker and Ducharme

At the southwest corner of Walker and Ducharme, on the very outskirts of South Windsor, there is a proposed six storey condo project in the works. The developer is Royalty Homes, who built many of the homes in the nearby Walkergate subdivision. The project will include both surface and underground parking, and the building is supposed to be situated close to Walker Road in a horseshoe shape surrounding the 6 acre site. More details to come. There aren’t many condos in South Windsor so this idea is interesting.

It's definitely an exciting time to see lots of projects in the works. In fact, there are quite a few more, so it looks like I’ll need to put together a part two to this post! Readers, how do you feel about these new developments?

2017 Real Estate Year in Review – Dissecting the Stats

Well, we are now fully into mid January and 2018 is in full swing.  Hopefully those of you that made new year’s resolutions have stuck to them so far ☺.  If one of your resolutions was to stay informed on the Windsor-Essex real estate market, then you have come to the right place!  Today, we are going to be reviewing the 2017 Windsor-Essex County Association of Realtors statistics.

Listings Year Over Year Fell 2%

Listings were slightly down from 2016, and many people already thought 2016 was a year of low inventory.  In 2017, we burned through even more inventory and there are less properties for buyers to go around as we start 2018.  One might’ve assumed the hot market would entice more people to list their properties but the stats don’t tell that story.

Units Sold Rose 2% Year Over Year

The total number of property transactions increased by 2% over a great 2016 year!  It's not a huge increase, but combining that with a decline in listings and inventory being eaten up, a 2% increase in units sales isn't enough to explain all the craziness of the 2017 market. That leads us to our next stat...

Average Sale Price Increased 17% Year Over Year

The average sale price in the area increased from from $225,906 to $264,750 during that period.  A banner year on a percentage basis and one of the best our local market has even seen.  Strong activity across the board and a healthy sellers market.  But when comparing the price increase to the listing and unit sales activity (with modest moves), the number seems a little out of whack.  Why is that?  To try to figure it out we’ll dive into the December monthly statistics.

In December 2017,  16.83% of sales were of Properties that Sold for $420,000+

When the board breaks down sales by price range, they have increments of $40,000-$60,000.  Starting at $0-$60,000, $60,000-$99,999, etc, up to $420,000+ as the highest range, the highest range had the second highest sales activity next to only $140,000-$179,999 (17.16%).  Basically, we’ve been selling way more high priced properties!  I think a lot of this can be contributed to the booming year in new construction and for detached homes, with $420,000+ at the low end of that price range.  The next point will help us further illustrate and hopefully drive the message home.

In December 2017, Average sale price increased 36% Year Over Year!

Wow, now that is pretty amazing.  Prices in those 30 days went from an average of $220,053 in 2016, all the way to $300,314 in 2017.  The first time we ever remember seeing an average price with a 3 handle!  Not that long ago our average prices still had a 1 handle!  In this 30 day period the main contributor to the huge spike in average prices was the healthy activity in the higher priced properties.

There is our brief but hopefully helpful review of the 2017 market statistics.  If there are any topics you’d like to read about in 2018, drop us a line and we’d be happy to try and incorporate it into a future post.  Happy new year everyone!

Ex-Windsorites: Make 2018 The Year To Move Back Home

Part of the boom we’ve seen in our local Windsor-Essex area in the past few years has been attributed to the large segment of Windsorites moving back home.  Whether they left for jobs, school or other factors, people are migrating back in droves.  For those of you still weighing a potential move back home to Windsor-Essex, today we are going to try and push your decision over the edge and discuss what you are missing out on!

Traffic

You can drive pretty much anywhere you’d like to go in 20 minutes or less!  Traffic is one of the biggest issues of living in a big city and having a long commute is a big contributor to issues with stress and quality of life.  Give up that two hour commute and spend more time with family or at the gym everyday ☺

Detroit

I don’t know if you’ve been living under a rock, but Detroit is experiencing a renaissance these last few years.  Lots of exciting developments are underway and tens of thousands of new people are living and working again in the city.  As it grows, our area is becoming a suburb of Detroit and offers us access to many big city amenities including a major airport, all four major sports teams (Major League Soccer is also in the works), shopping, bars and restaurants, and also a large job market as many cross border workers can attest to.

Cheap Real Estate

You probably already knew this one, but Windsor-Essex still offers some of the cheapest real estate in Canada.  As you get priced out of the large Canadian markets, you’ll still more than likely be able to afford the type of home you desire in our area.  At an average price of around $260,000, you wont have to grind it out paying a mortgage your whole life!

Weather

The YQG has one of the warmest climates in Canada. Summers are longer and during winters we often "skate" by with little snow (fingers crossed for this year).  If cold winters and snow aren’t your thing, consider a move to the southernmost county in Canada.

Economy

Part of the reason lots of people left our area over the last decade was the automotive downturn and the accompanying high unemployment rate.  Well, that has more than reversed course and we now hold one of the lowest unemployment rates in Canada (below 6% this fall).  One of the main issues we face going forward is a shortage of workers in different sectors.  Apply within!

Those are just a few of the dozens of reasons you should consider moving back home to Windsor-Essex.  It really is the “Biggest Small Town” around.  What are you waiting for?  Make 2018 your year.

Real Estate Insider: September 2017 News Report

Welcome back to the Lalovich Real Estate Insider! We've been busy reading a tonne of topics and wanted to share the best finds with you. How much do you need to make to buy a house in Toronto? How did a multi-million dollar home street sell for less than $100k in California? What does the end of the Canadian housing bubble market mean for you? Find out the answers and much more in this edition. Enjoy!

Don’t be tricked by ‘buzz words’; make sure you know your options when applying for insurance. >>

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Looking at the house price-to-rent index, to balance out from the recent spike in housing prices, value either needs to go down or rent needs to come up. Based on this, the OECD predicts a 28% decline in home prices by 2020. Read more here >>

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The Ontario Real Estate Association is stepping up to become the self proclaimed “watch dog” for the industry’s regulatory body. This transformation is catalyzed by the fact that as of 2020, they will no longer be providing real estate education. Read more about the transformation here >>

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Thinking of becoming a landlord? Here are 10 tips to follow to make your rental property a successful one. >>

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A change of heart ended up costing this buyer $360,000! Learn why walking away from a deal could cost you more than just your deposit. >>

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While the housing boom drew thousands into the Real Estate career, the inevitable slowdown is expected to decimate the ranks of the inexperienced realtors. >>

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A private street in San Francisco with 35 Mega-Million Dollar mansions was sold to a couple for $90,100… all because of a $994 unpaid tax bill. Read why here >>

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Are you getting the best rates on your mortgage? Experts say people need to start comparing mortgage rates the same way they do when booking flights or hotels. Read the startling facts here >>

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Thinking of moving to Toronto? A recent study has found that to afford the average detached home, residents need an average income close to $200,000. >>

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Deciding what to do with your rental properties? Considering entering the rental property market? Be sure to read this list of every indicator to consider when selling an investment property. >> 

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Going with traditional: a new mixed commercial/residential building is planned for an empty Walkerville area lot, becoming one of the first buildings of its type built there in a long time. >>

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Learning from past mistakes: it seems as though Canada’s housing market bubble is officially over, without the notoriously feared “pop”. >>

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Buyer's remorse: people are scrambling to close after the recent cool down of the housing market. >>

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The real estate association believes it's time to increase the penalty for unethical behaviour in the real estate profession and is lobbying for stricter regulations due to the fact that the current regulations are close to 15 years old. >>

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Feel like you're paying too much for your mortgage? It's likely you've made one of the top five costly homeowner financial mistakes. Find out here >>

Basement Flooding 101

In our area of Windsor, Ontario, we had some very heavy rains this week. Although nothing comparable to some of the devastation in the Houston, Texas area, many people suffered substantial damage from basement flooding. The condo building I live in had 2.5 feet of water in the parking garage ☹. We thought this friendly reminder on basement flooding tips would be timely.

Follow any directives to turn off utilities. If you’re advised to switch off the main power source to your home, flip each breaker and then turn off the main breaker. You may also need to shut off the main valve for your home’s gas and water.

1. Be aware that submerged outlets or electrical cords may energize standing water. Keep the power off and do not enter a flooded area until it has been determined to be safe to do so by a professional.
2. Have an electrician inspect electrical appliances that have been wet. Do not turn on or plug in appliances unless and electrician tells you it's safe.
3. If the flooding is due to a sewage backup (or you are not sure), do not flush the toilet, run a washing machine, dishwasher or any other feature with a drain since this will likely increase the flooding.
4. Report the issue to the municipality. Documentation of flood locations helps municipal staff determine if any work is required on municipal infrastructure.
5. During clean up, provide as much ventilation as you can. Open windows if weather permits and use fans to dry things out.
6. Call your insurance company immediately. They will advise you on standard clean up procedures, contractors to call and claim information.
7. Make sure you take lots of pictures and document items that have been damaged or need to be replaced. Before you head out and start buying new stuff, make sure you are familiar with the coverage you have with your insurer. Keep any and all receipts for emergency work done, purchases, and/or repairs.
8. Insurance companies look favourably on homeowners wanting to undertake work on their own to reduce the likelihood of future flooding. Repeat claims with no efforts to reduce future risk may be sufficient for an insurance company to drop that form of coverage in the future.
9. Take preventative measures in the future to make sure the water stays away from your basement as much as possible. These include: making sure downspouts are extended and flow away from the foundation, gutters are clean and flowing, grading isn’t low in any areas and if it is having it filled it to flow away from the house, and having the sewer lines checked annually to make sure they are flowing and not backed up and possibly having them eeled out if need be.
10. If the preventative measures don’t work at keeping the water away, you may need to look at additional upgrades including: adding in a sump or multiple sumps with battery back ups, a back flow (check flow valve) to stop the sewer back up, doing the weeping tile along the perimeter of the basement, and digging up the exterior of the house to add a waterproof membrane.

Sometimes when we get a huge rain storm in a short period of time, there isn’t much you as a homeowner can do. Knowing some of these tips can help keep you safe next time and hopefully minimize the damage. Stay dry out there!

More Real Estate & Related Predictions for 2017

Last week we made a few real estate and related predictions about 2017.  This week we will take a crack at a few more.  So without further ado…

New Construction of Rental Units

With the vacancy rate dropping again last year to a minuscule 2.9%, conditions are ripe for new construction of multi-family units.  Very little has been built in our area since the 70s.  Combine that with some incentives being offered, like no development fees in the downtown core area, and investment is sure to show up.

The Residential Vacancy Rate Flattens Out

After topping out north of 15% back in the recession of 2008-09, the local vacancy rate has continued to plummet in the last 7-8 years all the way to 2.9% in 2016.  As the law of small numbers would dictate, additional improvement will be small from here.  Combine that with an increased number of sales of condos and homes to investors and new construction coming online, the supply of rental units should increase to flatten excess demand.

New Construction Of Industrial Space

The vacancy rate for quality industrial space has really plummeted to near zero levels locally.  Suppliers are worried that they don’t have the floor space to produce enough to meet contracts.  The market might finally be ripe for a wave of new buildings being built.  Increases in rent prices are almost at the point to justify new construction costs for landlords.

Office Shows Modest Improvement But Still Too Much Supply

With the local economy being much improved, demand for office space is getting better everyday.  Having said that, there is still too much supply in the market.  We expect to sop up some of that inventory, but not materially so.

Windsor-Essex Real Estate Market Continues to Get Positive Media Exposure

Last year was the first year where local and national media really started to notice the renaissance going on in our local real estate market.  General inquires for real estate are rolling in everyday.  With continued migration, immigration and a buoyant local economy, things look rosy for 2017 and therefore we should see continued positive media.

There are some more predictions for 2017.  Hopefully we get some of them right!  Do you agree or disagree with any of them?

2016 Local Real Estate Stats Examined

Last week we made a few general observations about our local real estate market from 2016.  This week we are going to dive a little deeper and look into some relevant statistics.  Note: Some of these statistics are based on the first 11 months of the year, as we still have a couple weeks left in December.  Also, these stats refer to our home market of Windsor, Ontario.

Units Sold Increased 10% Year Over Year

The headline is pretty self explanatory.  The number of units (houses) sold are on pace to top last year by 10%.  This is generally positive as more transactions are taking place so the market is more active.  Obviously this is a great thing for sellers.

Listings Increased 2% Year Over Year

Again a pretty straightforward headline.  The number of houses listed for sale are on track to increase by 2% compared to last year.  All other things being equal, this is positive for buyers as there is more inventory for sale and negative for sellers as there is more competition when selling your home.  When comparing the increase in listings with the increase in sales, sales have increased significantly more than listings, so one should expect to see an increase in prices during this period.

Average Sales Price Increased 13% Year Over Year

Good news for sellers!  Average Prices increased from $200,823 to $226,193.  After seeing sales up 10% and listings up only 2%, there was not enough supply to meet demand and there was upward pressure on prices.  Some of this gain can also be attributed to a higher share of high priced homes being sold this year compared to last year.  Obviously this is not so good for first time home buyers, or people who have been renting for the last year as it will be more expensive for them to find a home.

Housing Starts Increased 30% Year Over Year

This is great news all around.  Sales of new construction houses have really boomed this year.  This is also great for the local economy as the builders hire skilled trades which boosts local employment, the city or town expands its tax base, and additional services must be added (retail) to service this additional density and demography.  Hopefully this continues.

The Rental Vacancy Rate Decreased from 3.9% to 2.9% Year Over Year

This is another overwhelmingly positive statistic.  On a percentage basis this means there are 25.6% less vacant apartments in the area.  This continues the improving trend from 2009 when vacancy rates were 12%+.  Vacancy rate declines are generally indicative of economic growth and population growth (both province migration ie Alberta to Ontario, and immigration).  With an improving economy, robust sales activity and a tight rental market, it is clear people are moving to the area.  The area now seems ripe for new construction of rental units.

So after reviewing the stats it's clear to see that 2016 was a pretty healthy year for the real estate market.  Those are our takeaways from the stats.  What are yours?

*Sources WECAR & CMHC

A Real Estate View on Environmental Assessment

Why? Cost? What if Problems Exist? Remediation?

Although we are not engineers in the environmental industry, we do see "Environmental Assessments" as part of the due diligence process. The above questions are a good place to start and gives you a practical "Real Estate View" with respect to EAs.

WHY - any EA (be it a Phase I, 11, or Ill), will identify either actual or potential property/site environmental issues. Some may be minor in nature, whereas others may be seriously problematic and pose major risks to users of the property. Beyond identifying environmental issues, a proper report should provide a series of recommendations to deal with and correct the problems outlined.

COST - will vary based on the type of report required and the depth of analysis needed. Every jurisdiction will have both national and local firms which specialize in EAs. Best practice is to compare services between 2 or 3 providers and be realistic based on the history of the subject property. Lowest fee is not always the way to go - again, you get what you pay for.

WHAT IF PROBLEMS EXIST - from a transactional standpoint, this is why you have a DUE DILIGENCE REVIEW built in to your offer. Beyond the problem(s) identified, there is going to be a cost to correct. Options may include:

1. terminate the deal
2. request the cost to correct be at the expense of the Seller
3. accept the problem and assume the liability
4. review all details and any proposed resolution with the lender

REMEDIATION - this is the common term for correcting the problem, and applies more in the event of complex matters - ie. contaminated soil,asbestos removal, underground tanks etc. Two key points here:

• ensure the engineer who created the report remains involved through the remediation period
• ensure a final report clearing the matter is obtained upon completion of the work

Again, the lenders need to be on-board with all matters relating to the EA, otherwise your financing could be at stake. Would love to hear about your experiences on EAs - and yes - the good, the bad, and the ugly.

As always, feel free to connect with us on Commercial Properties here in Windsor - Essex!

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Mark Lalovich
mark@lalovichrealestate.com
Office: (519) 966-0444
Cell: (519) 259-5434

Property Due Diligence

In considering the acquisition of a property, it's wise to take the time to evaluate the building/site on a top-down basis. Typically this is done during a 'conditional period' within your Agreement of Purchase and Sale, and it facilitates your investigation of the property on a number of fronts.

Some of the more common elements of a due diligence review can include the following:

Physical Condition - which should be undertaken by a qualified building inspector or possibly an engineer/architect. Normally this is centered around issues relating to the structural condition (i.e. roof) of the building, electrical/plumbing systems, heating/cooling equipment, and site improvements (i.e. parking lot). The goal is to do a 'top -down' review of the property to determine any deficiencies which will be assumed PRIOR to firming up your purchase agreement. Keep in mind that any deficiencies which are assumed, become expenses which ultimately get added to the acquisition cost.

Environmental Review - normally handled by an environmental consultant within your jurisdiction. Even though it is generally a requirement for mortgage financing purposies, it is generally a good idea to complete one in order to establish a 'base line' position on the property on a go-forward basis. The details of such reports will vary from property to property, as will the costs to complete them. Environmental problems can be expensive to remediate and correct after the fact, so the reviews are most often well worth the investment.

Title Review - this is an exercise best completed during the due diligence process. It should reveal any easements, property restrictions, and lien/encumbrances which affect the property and ultimately your use of it. The bottom-line here, you want to ensure that there are no title matters affecting the property that you are ultimately UNABLE or UNWILLING to accept. It's a good practice to complete it during the conditional period.

Other reviews might include building code/zoning matters, special designations (i.e. heritage), equipment inspections (i.e. cranes).

Dollars spent in conducting good due diligence, is generally money well spent and well worth the investment. 'Caveat Emptor' lives on in the real estate world ... be an Aware Buyer!

Feel free to comment on any of your recent experiences with property due diligence -- the good, the bad, and the ugly. Look forward to connecting with you on any investment opportunities here in Windsor-Essex -just give us a call or connect through our website.

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Mark Lalovich
mark@lalovichrealestate.com
Office: (519) 966-0444
Cell: (519) 259-5434

Our Real Estate Wish List for Santa

Well this is our last blog post of the year and Santa is coming on Friday. Hopefully you’ve all been good this year and he is bringing you all the presents you have asked for.

 Today we wanted to talk about our wish list for a healthy 2016 real estate market:

1. Continued low interest rates. With historic low interest rates of 2015, it makes housing payments more affordable and investing cash flows higher. We don’t forsee these going away for a while but why not appreciate how good we have it (talk with those who owned real estate in the early ‘80s with 20%+ interest rates).
2. Immigration and migration into the Windsor-Essex Market. With the push for retirees and low housing prices, the area has become successful in attracting people from large high priced markets to relocate to Windsor-Essex. We hope to see this trend continuing to increase.
3. The continued resurgence of the Automotive Industry. The rebound in the last few years has created significant jobs and economic activity for the area which has helped drive the local real estate market.  
4. No more terrorist attacks! Aside from the human tragedy that we hope to avoid, we hope not to see these terrorist attacks continuing around the world and shaking the confidence of people in the global economy.
5. A mild winter. Put your hand up if you love brutal winter conditions….anyone? Didn’t think so. Buyer and Sellers in the real estate market don’t love bad weather either and a mild winter should keep this booming real estate market going.
6. A healthy increase in supply of houses and commercial properties. In 2015 we saw the stats swing highly in the favor of a sellers market and we have many buyers who haven’t been able to find the property they have been looking for. A slight increase in supply to balance the market out would help in 2016.

What are your wishes for Santa?

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Russel Lalovich
russel@lalovichrealestate.com
Office: (519) 966-0444
Cell: (519) 995-5620

Beyond The Cap Rate - "Financial Due Diligence"

Investors typically outline their investment objectives based on a cap rate target. In examining properties on the market that are advertised within the objective range, the next step is to take a detailed look at the legitimacy of the numbers which the CAP RATE is based on.

On the income side, start with a thorough review of the current lease agreements. The rental income needs to reconcile back to the $ amounts presented on the financial statements as provided. Additionally you will want to confirm lease terms, future increases, renewal options, deposits held etc. You also need to note any special provisions – such as early termination clauses, future rental caps, expiration of personal guarantees, and first rights on adjoining space. Best practice here, is to ensure the revenue numbers add up and are supportable based on the terms contained in the lease(s).

On the expense side, annual reports are typically provided and are a good place to start. However, you need to go further – verifying the expense amounts shown, based on actual invoices paid. An additional step, particularly on smaller properties, is to call for the Seller’s tax returns against the corresponding years. Again best practice, is to confirm and legitimize the expense side and make sure they reconcile back as presented.

A proper Due Diligence should confirm the figures as presented – and in doing so legitimizes the CAP RATE. In any type of income property investing, the ‘devil is in the details’. Make sure you verify those details before moving forward on any purchase.

Welcome hearing about any DUE DILIGENCE stories based on your experience – either good or bad. Or any comments you care to share. Look forward to discussing investment opportunities here in Windsor-Essex – feel free to connect with us.

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Mark Lalovich
mark@lalovichrealestate.com
Office: (519) 966-0444
Cell: (519) 259-5434

Cap Rate Compression

This is a commonly used term which very much applies to many markets across Canada – and not just the large metropolitan/urban areas (a.k.a.- Toronto and Vancouver). Smaller urban markets (a.k.a. Windsor, London, & Kitchener/Waterloo), have also seen cap rates trend lower and experienced “cap rate compression” similarly in recent years.

Let’s review the concept of a ‘capitalization rate’, as it is commonly applied in commercial real estate:

CAPITALIZATION RATE = ANNUAL NET OPERATING INCOME/COST (AQUISTION PRICE)

$100,000 / $1,200,000 = 8.3% CAP. RATE

Most often the cap rate is used a means to quickly (financially) size up a property, relative to other potential investments available. In any market, you should be able to look at recent sales in a particular property category, and determine what sort of cap rate range the market has experienced in a recent period (say 12-18 months). Specifically if we take the example of the office building market - data should be available to indicate a range of cap rates based on comparable sales during the period you are analyzing.

So what’s the basis of cap rate compression? In short what it’s telling us is properties are yielding less income and values are being bid up. Often if you look back 3-4-5 years, you may determine that the cap rate compression has been significant and values are up considerably as a result. Cap rate data should be readily available through your local brokerage community or commercial appraisers.

When planning for any investments (real estate or otherwise), it’s always best practice to do so with ‘eyes wide open’ and understand the historical backdrop to your market. The concept of cap rate compression is one you should be familiar with and consider as you plan for future investments.

Next up is…BEYOND THE CAP RATE ANALYSIS. What sort of cap rate compression have you seen in your market? Are values being stretched ? How competitive is it on the “Buy Side”?

We’d love to hear from you -- and discuss some excellent investment ideas here in Windsor – Essex.

Please leave us a comment, give us a call, or send us an email!

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Mark Lalovich
mark@lalovichrealestate.com
Office: (519) 966-0444
Cell: (519) 259-5434

Positive Cash Flow = Positive Debt Coverage Ratio (DCR)

After you determine an income property yields a POSITIVE CASH FLOW, the next step is to calculate the property’s ability to service mortgage financing costs out of this cash flow.

The standard measurement within the investing world is referred to as the DEBT COVERAGE RATIO (DCR). DCR is simply comparing the property’s net operating income (NOI) to the projected mortgage financing costs – typically on both a monthly and annual basis.

Banks/Lenders typically look at DCR closely, wanting to confirm that the cash flow is sufficient to cover the related debt cost (aka monthly mortgage payment). In fact, most often they are looking to see a positive margin, which exceeds the mortgage servicing costs.

Source: Politico

Using a ‘break –even’ analogy, if the cash flow just meets the debt service costs - this would be a simple ‘break even’ outcome.

Consider the following illustration:

Property 1 
Net Operating Income - $75000
Mortgage Costs (Debt) - $50,000
DCR – 1.5

Property 2
Net Operating Income - $45,000
Mortgage Costs - $50,000
DCR - .9

*All $ amounts are annual

In the case of property 1, the cash flow exceeds the funds required to cover the mortgage requirement. In the case of property 2, a deficit is created ($5,000) which is not only an annual loss, but creates a negative return on actual cash invested.

In layman’s terms, a DCR of (1) is a ‘break-even’ - a DCR of (1.5) is ‘positive’ - a DCR of (.9) is ‘negative’. For investment purposes, this is how you should approach your analysis.

Just a final word on the bankers/lenders, you’re ability to negotiate favourable mortgage terms are clearly impacted by the property’s DCR. This gives you some insight as to how they evaluate risk in underwriting mortgages and how it ultimately impacts your proposed purchase.

How are lenders approaching DCR in your area? How does it affect rates offered and other terms proposed? 

Feel free to reach out to us, should you have interest in the Windsor-Essex market. As always, appreciate any feedback in the comments!

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Mark Lalovich
mark@lalovichrealestate.com
Office: (519) 966-0444
Cell: (519) 259-5434

Breaking News - Vacancy Rates in Windsor Drop Below 4%!

CMHC (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation) released its latest rental market survey last week and Windsor’s vacancy rate has declined again.

Last year’s vacancy rate of 4.3% is now down to 3.9%.

Source: Urbanite News

This marks the 7th straight year that vacancy rates in the area are down in the area. Average rents also edged up by 2.8% year over year. The final report will be released in December.

How can we interpret this news? Here are some of the takeaways:

1. This is good news for the multifamily sector as they have lower vacancy and therefore higher net incomes. This is also good for property values as this translates into higher valuations based on the income approach.
2. The population must be growing again as more and more units are being occupied.
3. This moves the Windsor market further inline with the Ontario average of 3.1%.
4. The vacancy rate has continued its decline since 2008, toping out north of 14%. This is a remarkable turnaround.
5. This puts Windsor vacancy rate below those of large markets such as Calgary (5.3%) and Edmonton (4.2%).
6. This could put further demand pressure on the housing market as more and more renters decide to leave a tight rental market and buy a home.
7. Landlords could begin looking to build rental units as the economics improve with these lower vacancy rates. We have already seen one starting in the suburb of Lasalle this year.
8. Tenants will have a harder time finding units to rent and will be looking at paying higher rents than they have been.

Overall this is very positive news for Windsor, its economy and investors in the community.

Readers, what do you make of this news?

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Russel Lalovich
russel@lalovichrealestate.com
Office: (519) 966-0444
Cell: (519) 995-5620

4 Caveats to A Leverage Strategy

If applied on the right property investments and in the right market conditions, leverage is an excellent strategy. Check out this article from “DON CAMPBELL” a foremost Canadian authority on real estate investing. The numbers do not lie - if you pay particular attention to the investment illustration outlined.

But to guard against the ‘downside’, as you look to employ a LEVERAGE strategy, consider the following four “caveats”:

Source: Instphil

1. Cash Flow is KING – ensure the tenant/revenue base is stable and secure. This includes the covenant of the tenants, lease terms, current occupancy levels, and debt service coverage on current income/expenses.
2. Low Down Payment means HIGHER MONTHLY PAYMENTS – completing a deal with a low down payment, often becomes problematic if the monthly mortgage payment is beyond a comfortable level. If the market conditions deteriorate and vacancies rise, this problem often will only get worse and the monthly payment harder to meet.
3. Projecting for APPRECIATION – markets do not always go up, despite recent trends, and you must be realistic in assessing this variable, both with respect to your own market and the specific properties being targeted. In a stalled or declining market, properties which have stable cash flows thrive and are insulated from a negative market.
4. Maximum Leverage vs. POOR INVESTMENT – no money or low down payment deals on a poor investment property, typically leads to negative results. Do not let attractive leverage opportunities, compromise your ability to stay the course on targeting good property investments.

Leverage is a great strategy, but it requires sound discipline in its application.

Tells us about your use of leverage in your market. Again, we love to tell you about our own backyard here in Windsor-Essex, so feel to reach out to us!

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Mark Lalovich
mark@lalovichrealestate.com
Office: (519) 966-0444
Cell: (519) 259-5434