2019 Real Estate Market Predictions

Happy New Year, readers! Hope you had a great holiday season and that your 2019 is off to a great start. Now that everyone is back to business, who wants to talk some real estate? Today, we are going to offer our real estate market predictions for 2019.

Cap Rates Will Mostly Flatten Out or Even Increase A Bit

Cap rates have seemingly hit bottom. They didn’t really have much further to go, so this isn’t surprising. Now that interest rates have increased a bit, investors appear to be looking for a higher cap rate on their commercial investment properties. We reached a bit of a standstill with some properties in 2018, with sellers' lofty expectations not being achieved in the market. To get these deals done, sellers will need to adjust their expectations.

Multifamily Will Still Be On Fire

While it is our opinion that cap rates commercially will stall out, multifamily still has some positive dynamics that will keep it chugging along. First off, the demand is still very high from across Canada and the supply is very limited. It isn’t economical to build with these new construction prices, so adding new supply wont help the situation. Plus, the rental market is tight and rents are increasing—that doesn’t look like it will be changing anytime soon.

Interest Rates Will Increase, But Not As Much As Expected

Economists and market forecasters are expecting multiple interest rate increases this year, on the back of the three times the Bank of Canada raised last year. While we foresee rates to go a little higher, we don’t think the market in general can withstand an interest rate spike without causing a significant recession. The population is far too indebted and—particularly in expensive cities like Toronto and Vancouver—the cost of increased interest expenses can't be born. For these reasons, we think interest rates will have a lid on them.

The Lending Environment Will Get More Difficult For Borrowers

The government has introduced several measures over the last few years to try and cool the housing market. It finally seemed to have been working, as Toronto and Vancouver didn’t have such great stats in the second half of 2018. Combining these measures with higher interest rates, qualifying for the house you want is getting more difficult. We are also seeing lenders and mortgage insurers pulling back their risk, scrutinizing more deals and generally acting less competitive in the financing market.  We expect this to continue in 2019. This may also lead to more firm deals falling through at closing due to some of these factors.  So we advise sellers and listing agents to be extra diligent in ensuring buyers are qualified and pre-approved for a mortgage in your price range, with a little extra buffer for safety. Also, ask for big deposits!

Rents Will Rise & Vacancy Rate Will Fall Again

Residential rents have really increased in the last few years and the factors driving that don’t seem to be changing anytime soon. In fact, with the housing market continuing its climb and with the tightening lending environment, more people could be driven into the rental market, increasing demand. Adding to this is the start of the Gordie Howe Bridge, bringing with it a large influx of temporary workers coming to the area; the vacancy rate is forecast to continue to trend lower.

2019 should be an interesting year in the real estate market. Those are our predictions. What are yours?

2017 Real Estate Year in Review – Dissecting the Stats

Well, we are now fully into mid January and 2018 is in full swing.  Hopefully those of you that made new year’s resolutions have stuck to them so far ☺.  If one of your resolutions was to stay informed on the Windsor-Essex real estate market, then you have come to the right place!  Today, we are going to be reviewing the 2017 Windsor-Essex County Association of Realtors statistics.

Listings Year Over Year Fell 2%

Listings were slightly down from 2016, and many people already thought 2016 was a year of low inventory.  In 2017, we burned through even more inventory and there are less properties for buyers to go around as we start 2018.  One might’ve assumed the hot market would entice more people to list their properties but the stats don’t tell that story.

Units Sold Rose 2% Year Over Year

The total number of property transactions increased by 2% over a great 2016 year!  It's not a huge increase, but combining that with a decline in listings and inventory being eaten up, a 2% increase in units sales isn't enough to explain all the craziness of the 2017 market. That leads us to our next stat...

Average Sale Price Increased 17% Year Over Year

The average sale price in the area increased from from $225,906 to $264,750 during that period.  A banner year on a percentage basis and one of the best our local market has even seen.  Strong activity across the board and a healthy sellers market.  But when comparing the price increase to the listing and unit sales activity (with modest moves), the number seems a little out of whack.  Why is that?  To try to figure it out we’ll dive into the December monthly statistics.

In December 2017,  16.83% of sales were of Properties that Sold for $420,000+

When the board breaks down sales by price range, they have increments of $40,000-$60,000.  Starting at $0-$60,000, $60,000-$99,999, etc, up to $420,000+ as the highest range, the highest range had the second highest sales activity next to only $140,000-$179,999 (17.16%).  Basically, we’ve been selling way more high priced properties!  I think a lot of this can be contributed to the booming year in new construction and for detached homes, with $420,000+ at the low end of that price range.  The next point will help us further illustrate and hopefully drive the message home.

In December 2017, Average sale price increased 36% Year Over Year!

Wow, now that is pretty amazing.  Prices in those 30 days went from an average of $220,053 in 2016, all the way to $300,314 in 2017.  The first time we ever remember seeing an average price with a 3 handle!  Not that long ago our average prices still had a 1 handle!  In this 30 day period the main contributor to the huge spike in average prices was the healthy activity in the higher priced properties.

There is our brief but hopefully helpful review of the 2017 market statistics.  If there are any topics you’d like to read about in 2018, drop us a line and we’d be happy to try and incorporate it into a future post.  Happy new year everyone!

Ex-Windsorites: Make 2018 The Year To Move Back Home

Part of the boom we’ve seen in our local Windsor-Essex area in the past few years has been attributed to the large segment of Windsorites moving back home.  Whether they left for jobs, school or other factors, people are migrating back in droves.  For those of you still weighing a potential move back home to Windsor-Essex, today we are going to try and push your decision over the edge and discuss what you are missing out on!

Traffic

You can drive pretty much anywhere you’d like to go in 20 minutes or less!  Traffic is one of the biggest issues of living in a big city and having a long commute is a big contributor to issues with stress and quality of life.  Give up that two hour commute and spend more time with family or at the gym everyday ☺

Detroit

I don’t know if you’ve been living under a rock, but Detroit is experiencing a renaissance these last few years.  Lots of exciting developments are underway and tens of thousands of new people are living and working again in the city.  As it grows, our area is becoming a suburb of Detroit and offers us access to many big city amenities including a major airport, all four major sports teams (Major League Soccer is also in the works), shopping, bars and restaurants, and also a large job market as many cross border workers can attest to.

Cheap Real Estate

You probably already knew this one, but Windsor-Essex still offers some of the cheapest real estate in Canada.  As you get priced out of the large Canadian markets, you’ll still more than likely be able to afford the type of home you desire in our area.  At an average price of around $260,000, you wont have to grind it out paying a mortgage your whole life!

Weather

The YQG has one of the warmest climates in Canada. Summers are longer and during winters we often "skate" by with little snow (fingers crossed for this year).  If cold winters and snow aren’t your thing, consider a move to the southernmost county in Canada.

Economy

Part of the reason lots of people left our area over the last decade was the automotive downturn and the accompanying high unemployment rate.  Well, that has more than reversed course and we now hold one of the lowest unemployment rates in Canada (below 6% this fall).  One of the main issues we face going forward is a shortage of workers in different sectors.  Apply within!

Those are just a few of the dozens of reasons you should consider moving back home to Windsor-Essex.  It really is the “Biggest Small Town” around.  What are you waiting for?  Make 2018 your year.